2020 Election Projection Part 2: Democrats win the White House, Republicans win the Senate

September 17, 2020, by Sara McPherson

In part one of our Election Series, we looked at the ramifications of a Democratic sweep in November. If this were not to play out, the “weakest link” in the Democratic sweep argument would be their ability to take control of the US Senate. As I write this, Real Clear Politics has the race for control of the Senate at a dead heat, with 46 seats expected for both Democrats and Republicans, and 8 races classified as a “toss-up”. Of the 8 “toss-up” races, 6 are in states carried by President Trump in 2016 (NC, SC, GA, IA, MT and MI). With this in mind, it would not be too surprising to see Joe Biden winning the White House while Republicans remain in control of the Senate. What would be the ramification on the economy and the markets if this were to play out? Here are some of our initial thoughts.

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