2020 Election Projection Part 3: Gridlock

September 24, 2020, by Sara McPherson

Although it is not currently the odds-on favorite to happen, if you asked a lot of people this is what their prediction would be: 1) the Democrats maintain the House of Representatives, and; 2) the Republicans hold on to both the Senate and the Executive Branch.

As recently as August, the betting markets had the Republicans as the favorites to win the Senate, however, some recent data in key swing states suggests the path to reelection might not be as clear as originally thought. All this being said, it still remains very well in the realm of possibilities the Senate and White House remain red. So, what does this mean for the government if, well, nothing happens? If nothing changes? Unless the two sides decide to become less polarized, this probably means one thing. Gridlock.

Based on what we have seen over the past four years, we can get a pretty good feel for what is going to happen. As they say, the more things change the more they stay the same. Here are our major implications for a blue House, red Senate, and another four years of Trump.

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