Quarterly Economic Updates

3rd Quarter Economic Update 2019

October 18, 2019, by John Norris

The 3rd Quarter of 2019 was almost a copy of the 2nd, only slightly less so. Both had bad months (August and May) sandwiched in between a couple of good months. However, May was worse than August, and the sandwich months weren’t quite as strong in 3Q as they were in 2Q. For all the promise of volatility at the beginning of the year, 2019 has been surprisingly calm, or reasonably so. Why? Not much...

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2nd Quarter Economic Update 2019

July 24, 2019, by John Norris

The 2nd Quarter of 2019 wasn’t quite as strong as the 1st, but the markets still managed to post solid absolute returns. After a horrible month in May, investors climbed back on the rally bandwagon in June, and the party which started in January has kept up through the first couple of weeks in July. It has been quite a ride. So, what gives? Why has this year been so good for the stock market?...

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1st Quarter Economic Update 2019

April 11, 2019, by John Norris

In last quarter’s newsletter, I closed this section with the following: “although the markets will likely be more volatile than most of us would like in 2019, the worst of the market panic is likely behind us for now." I only got that partially correct. Yes, the worst of the market panic ended up being behind us during the 1st Quarter of 2019. However, there hasn’t been a lot of volatility thus far this calendar...

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4th Quarter Economic Update 2018

January 23, 2019, by John Norris

Investors overreacted during the 4th Quarter, but for understandable reasons. There has been a lot of ‘uncertainty’ in the markets, and no one likes uncertainty. Unfortunately, all these worries seemed to hit at a time when standard negative seasonal factors were at play. As a result, the markets were still wringing their collective hands after the somewhat usual bad October. In simple terms, the buyers just didn’t show up in November and December like they...

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3rd Quarter Economic Update 2018

October 22, 2018, by John Norris

As the last several weeks have demonstrated, the current economy and markets are not for the faint of heart. We will continue to see volatility, which will be exceedingly unpleasant at times, for no other reason than the current economic expansion and Fed tightening cycle are getting a little long in the tooth. Or in a tip of the cap to the baseball playoffs, perhaps I should say we are entering the latter innings of...

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2nd Quarter Economic Update 2018

July 31, 2018, by John Norris

As a general rule, I liked roller coasters when I was a kid. The Great American Scream Machine at Six Flags Over Georgia was a favorite, as were just about any other traditional wooden ones. If you aren’t familiar with the one in Atlanta, think of the Cyclone at Coney Island or the Yankee Cannonball at Canobie Lake Park. Closer to home, the Rampage at Alabama Splash Adventure in Bessemer is a surprisingly good ride....

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1st Quarter Economic Update 2018

April 12, 2018, by John Norris

The roller coaster ride in the markets we predicted for 2017 finally happened during the 1st Quarter of 2018. So which is the more appropriate? The easy money of January or the tribulations of February and March? What if the answer is neither? As I have told just about anyone who will listen, there is nothing in the economic data, tea leaves, or crystal ball to suggest a noticeable slowdown in the economy is imminent....

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