The 2020 Election Projection

2020 Election Projection Part 5: A Full Recap

October 8, 2020, by Sara McPherson

The Investment Committee at Oakworth Capital sincerely hopes you have enjoyed ‘The Election Projection.’ In just a few weeks, the campaign season will mercifully be over, and we will hopefully know who won in short order. At that time, we will be able to adjust our investment strategies accordingly.   In this last part of the series, we will recap our predictions from the other series, restate some of the better insight, and add a...

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2020 Election Projection Part 4: Blue Senate, Red White House

October 1, 2020, by Sara McPherson

Our last two publications have assumed the Republicans are able to maintain control of the Senate. However, there is a strong likelihood the Democrats could capture it and control both houses of the Congress. With the Senate turning blue, this week’s scenario also includes the assumption of a red White House, with President Trump remaining in office. Hotly-contested Senatorial battles in Alabama (between incumbent Democrat Doug Jones and football coach Tommy Tuberville), Arizona (between incumbent...

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2020 Election Projection Part 3: Gridlock

September 24, 2020, by Sara McPherson

Although it is not currently the odds-on favorite to happen, if you asked a lot of people this is what their prediction would be: 1) the Democrats maintain the House of Representatives, and; 2) the Republicans hold on to both the Senate and the Executive Branch. As recently as August, the betting markets had the Republicans as the favorites to win the Senate, however, some recent data in key swing states suggests the path to reelection...

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2020 Election Projection Part 2: Democrats win the White House, Republicans win the Senate

September 17, 2020, by Sara McPherson

In part one of our Election Series, we looked at the ramifications of a Democratic sweep in November. If this were not to play out, the “weakest link” in the Democratic sweep argument would be their ability to take control of the US Senate. As I write this, Real Clear Politics has the race for control of the Senate at a dead heat, with 46 seats expected for both Democrats and Republicans, and 8 races...

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2020 Election Projection Part 1: A Blue Wave

September 10, 2020, by Sara McPherson

It is entirely possible the Democratic Party could sweep to victory in the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Presidency. As we all know, President Trump has been polarizing during his time in office. Whether this strictly due to the man or whether it is the new normal to vilify your opponents’ officials remains to be seen. It is probably a combination of the two. Not so long ago, the low-hanging fruit, the path...

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