The New Normal Part 6: A Comparison to Past Normals

June 3, 2020, by Lindsey Owens Krausen

As the world works through the global pandemic, the word "unprecedented" has been used to describe the current environment by a majority of companies in their first quarter earnings report. Very few would argue that the synchronized global economic slowdown / shutdown is indeed unprecedented. There is little doubt that some things will never go back to the way they were before COVID-19 entered our life. We are just not sure what those changes are...

Trading Perspectives Podcast #91: Reality in the Markets vs Real Life

June 3, 2020, by Sara McPherson

Reality: The Markets vs Real Life It’s no doubt that we’ve seen some terrible economic data since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and now we are seeing riots and protests across the country. Yet somehow the markets keep going up. This is a weird time for the US Economy as well as the Global Economy and it seems that these recent rallies in the market are fueled by liquidity and the fear of missing...

Common Cents & Hong Kong on May 29, 2020

May 29, 2020, by John Norris

Yesterday, in part-5 of Oakworth’s ‘New Normal’, I made several predictions about what the ‘new normal’ might be in regards to China and its role in the world. This past Tuesday, on our ‘Trading Perspectives’ podcast, Sam Clement and I discussed the ongoing tensions in Hong Kong and what it might mean moving forward. Today, the stock markets are mostly in the red over trade tensions between the US and the People’s Republic, as well...

The New Normal Part 5: Global Implications

May 28, 2020, by Sara McPherson

When the dust settles, the smoke clears, and COVID-19 is finally in the rear-view mirror, the world’s geopolitical and economic landscapes will likely look different than they did leading into the pandemic. Some changes will simply be an acceleration in preexisting trends. Others will be a complete surprise. While no one can look into the future with crystal clarity, the following are a few potential changes which we feel could occur over the next several...

Trading Perspectives Podcast #90: China and The Hong Kong Economy

May 26, 2020, by Sara McPherson

China and The Hong Kong Economy China is trying to exert increasingly great authority over the Hong Kong government and economy. For years it’s been one country 2 systems. We saw protests last year before the COVID-19 pandemic and Beijing probably does not need Hong Kong like it did 25 years ago. With the rest of the world focused on the pandemic, is it possible that China is trying to reinitiate their efforts to threaten...

Common Cents & Memorial Day on May 22, 2020

May 22, 2020, by John Norris

By now, you probably feel you have read the same stories and same headlines over and again. Unfortunately, there isn’t much I can add here today which you haven’t read or seen elsewhere, in some form or fashion, this week. How is that for honest? Yes, the economic data is awful. However, investor sentiment seems to have detached from all the dreadful reports. And why not? After all, the government is throwing money at the...

The New Normal Part 4: Market Valuation

May 21, 2020, by Sara McPherson

When trying to determine the correct valuation for stocks, several different criteria are evaluated. Some of these include: Overall economic growth / strength, expected earnings, expected growth rate of those earnings going forward, predictability / reliability of the expected earnings, level of interest rates, and other investment options available at the time. Overall economic strength has a major impact on equity valuations. A strong economy will allow most companies to increase earnings, and give management...

The New Normal Part 3: Corporate Response

May 19, 2020, by Sara McPherson

With the massive spending by the Federal Government and sharp revenue declines for public entities across the country, it is hard to imagine taxes not going up at some point (but not until after the election). As such, do not be surprised to see both individual and corporate rates eventually increase. The political pull and lack of economic insight in Washington will simply be too strong. Read here Listen Here

Trading Perspectives Podcast #89: The Impact of Unemployment on Society

May 19, 2020, by Sara McPherson

The Impact of Unemployment on Society In the last 2 months, America has lost decades worth of jobs. 2-3 million people a week are filing initial jobless claims. What does that mean for society in terms of future wage growth, mental health, divorce rates or crime rates? Businesses that are currently, or planning to, reopen will eventually adjust to operating on a lower employee base. How do we fix it? What can we do to...

Common Cents & Recoveries on May 15, 2020

May 15, 2020, by John Norris

Another week, another slate of really awful looking economic data. I mean really bad. To be sure, Initial Jobless Claims were better than they were the previous week, and some people are taking a measure of solace in fewer people are applying for unemployment insurance each. However, at 2.981 million applicants last week, saying things are improving there is almost like saying: “Boy, aren’t you lucky? You only go hit in the head with a...